EDIT: Holy cow wij got truly close! The ETH price on Jan 1st 2018 is $740.
So for the last duo days, the price development of Ethereum (ETH) has remained pretty onveranderlijk. No significant dips, but also no upswings.
For the individual that just loves to track the ethereum price on an hourly voet (like mij!), this can be truly boring. And well, it wasgoed boring indeed… So I determined to carry out a petite poll on Reddit ter the /r/ethtrader community. The aim of it is to collectively predict the Ethereum price for Jan 1st 2018.
By the way, if you are an Ethereum investor, or are programma to invest, you undoubtedly need to join this subreddit. At the time I write this postbode there’s already 36,174 of us, and the community keeps growing day by day. If you do not know anything about ethereum, check out our postbode regarding ETH.
How did I carry the collective ethereum price prediction out?
I just published a postbode on the /r/ethtrader community titled “CHALLENGE: Let’s collectively predict the ETH price for the 1st of January (2018)”.
- After a duo seconds, the very first comments commenced to speelpop up.
- One hour passed, and the postbode wasgoed on the pui pagina with some upvotes and 30 comments or so.
- After just Five hours, the postbode received overheen Four.9K impressions, 290 comments, and 85 upvotes. Nice.
After the craze wasgoed overheen, I commenced to recollect the gegevens.
Albeit some Reddit users pointed out I should have used a polling webstek for this purpose, I determined to go for the good old excel sheet.
Of course, not all comments were serious ethereum price predictions.
After filtering out the clowns that make this community so pleasant, but also statistically irrelevant, there were exactly 165 “high-quality” predictions by Ethereum investors from all overheen the world.
What were the results?
Te order to obtain a result that is spil statistically relevant spil possible, I not only calculated the average, but also the median. Considering some of the outlier ethereum price predictions, the median is a vereiste.
Okay, enough talking, here is a screenshot of the results:
So according to this prediction, an ethereum price inbetween 600 and 800 should be expected for January 2018.
Why is this ethereum price prediction relevant?
Many studies have shown that artificial swarm intelligence can be used to make utterly accurate predictions.
… wait a minute. What is artificial swarm intelligence?
Since neither you strafgevangenis I are bees, wij can’t truly interact with each other with classic swarm intelligence. But with a puny twist, wij can simulate it.
A good example of this is the “Jar experiment”.
Ter that proef, a medium-sized jar is packed with marbles and sealed.
Next, 100 people are asked how many marbles they think are inwards.
Most of the individual’s predictions will be downright wrong. Some will say a value that is greater, and others will say one that is smaller than the actual one. But if wij calculate the average, it will come remarkably close to the real number of marbles.
And well, I did the precies same thing but for the price of Ethereum for the 1st of January of 2018.
I am dying of impatience to see how close wij get.
Please share your thoughts te the comment section below!